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            Find out if we are approaching another real estate bubble.  Get the latest "Maitski Line Report" 

Atlanta Real Estate Market Stats

Cobb Northwest,   FMLS Area 75
(see map below)

To get the most recent charts for Cobb Northwest, FMLS Area 75, please sign up below. 

 

 

You'll get instant access to charts for sales, inventory, days on the market and the new "Maitski Line Charts" for the absorption rates. 

 

How to Use the NEW "Maitski Line Reports" to Get an Idea About Which Way Homes Prices Are Going

For years I have been putting out monthly price charts for single family home prices in Atlanta. 

This chart shows the number of sales per month (demand) vs. the price

It's nice to see what has happened but it does nothing to predict the future of prices.

Then I began tracking the inventory of single family detached homes (supply).

 

 The key "aha moment" was when I took a look at the ratio of inventory/sales.  You can call it the  supply/demand ratio (Absorption rate). I divided the monthly inventory of homes by the monthly number of sales and plotted it against the monthly sales prices. I had never seen a chart of absorption rates over any significant length of time plotted alongside home prices. 

Since we've had some of the most dramatic price moves in Atlanta real estate over the past ten years, the thought was that I  might be able to see how prices and absorption rate are correlated and possibly see if it could be used as a leading indicator.

In the chart below, pay attention the blue line (Inventory/Sales Ratio).  When it stayed above its historic range (between the two green lines), in 2007  prices soon fall.  When it fell below its historic range, in 2012  prices soon rose dramatically.

 

 

In the chart below, notice how the seasonal peaks and valleys of the Inventory/Sales ratio (the blue line) corresponds with the seasonal peaks and valleys of prices (the red line).

Every year in January, when the inventory/sales ratio peaks (more supply than demand) prices seem to be at their seasonal lows.  When the tables turn in the summer (low supply and high demand) prices are at their seasonal highs.  This is a picture of supply and demand in action. It validates the correlation of this indicator to prices on a yearly basis and therefore should correlate to the longer real estate cycles.  Taking advantage of these longer real estate cycles is what we are really after.  We all got a wake up call repeating the mantra that real estate prices can only go up.

 

 

You can also see that the inventory/sales ratio stayed in the fairly tight band, between 6 and 10, between 2002 to 2006.  This was a time when prices in Atlanta were rising steadily at about 4.5% per year.

Look at what happened when that ratio went above 10 and kept going up in the spring of 2007.  6-12 months later prices started to fall.  There was too much supply and not enough demand and therefore prices started to adjust.  Real estate isn't liquid like stocks and bonds.  It takes months instead of seconds for prices to adjust.  Therefore you have some time to take advantage of the information. 

Prices kept falling until the inventory/sales ratio fell to below 6 in the spring of 2012.  Since then, the inventory/sales ratio has been below six and prices have risen by 52% from their lows.  Supply is low while demand is high and therefore the prices have adjusted higher.

 

 

To smooth out the seasonality noise, I plotted a twelve month moving average.  With the chart below, follow the blue line, the 12 month moving average for the inventory/sales ratio (absorption rate).  A rise to above 10 preceded the start of the fall in prices in 2007.   I call this "The Maitski Sell Line".  If you were thinking of selling, that would have been a great time to get out near the top.  If you were thinking of buying, that would have been a great time to wait it out and rent instead. 

When the blue line fell below 6 in 2012, shortly thereafter prices increased sharply.  I call this "The Maitski Buy Line". That was the time to buy if you were renting.  If you owned a home and wanted to sell, it might have been a time to wait, if possible, knowing that prices would eventually go higher.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but taken along with other statistics, such as total days on the market, one can have an objective indicator on which to base a buy/sell decision on.  History never repeats itself exactly but it's worthwhile to study past patterns and apply them to today's market. 

My theory is based on simple economics.  When the supply/demand ratio is outside of its historic channel, prices will change until that ratio gets back to normal levels. 

If the ratio is high, prices will fall.  If the ratio is low, prices will rise.

To find out where the blue line is today, sign up for the monthly updates in the box below.  I not only have the charts I created for the overall Atlanta area, I have detailed charts for 37 more localized areas around Atlanta. 

 

 

 

 

For more localized statistics, please click on the map area or the links below.

Roswell north cobb Alpharetta Sandy Springs North Sandy Springs south Buckhead Bankhead Hwy. Midtown, VA/HI West End South Fulton East Cobb Central East Cobb Acworth West Cobb West Central Cobb South Cobb Clayton County Cumming West Cumming East Dunwoody Tucker South DeKalb Stone Mountain Duluth/Buford Lilburn

Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Stats (All FMLS Areas)

Clayton County Real Estate Market Stats (Area 161)

Cobb County Real Estate Market Stats, South (Area 72)
Cobb County Real Estate Market Stats, South Central (Area 73)
Cobb County Real Estate Market Stats, West (Area 74)
Cobb County Real Estate Market Stats, Northwest (Area 75)
Cobb County Real Estate Market Stats, Northeast (Area 81)
Cobb County Real Estate Market Stats, East Central (Area 82)
Cobb County Real Estate Market Stats, East South (Area 83)

DeKalb County Real Estate Market Stats, Tucker (Area 41)
DeKalb County Real Estate Market Stats, Stone Mountain (Area 42)
DeKalb County Real Estate Market Stats, South (Area 43)
DeKalb County Real Estate Market Stats, Decatur (Area 52)
DeKalb County Real Estate Market Stats, Dunwoody (Area 121)
DeKalb County Real Estate Market Stats, Chamblee (Area 51)
DeKalb County Real Estate Market Stats, Candler Park, Kirkwood (Area 24)
DeKalb County Real Estate Market Stats, East Atlanta, Gresham Park (Area 53)

Forsyth County Real Estate Market Stats, East (Area 221)
Forsyth County Real Estate Market Stats, West (Area 222)
Forsyth County Real Estate Market Stats, Northwest (Area 223)


Fulton County Real Estate Market Stats, Alpharetta/Roswell (Area 13)
Fulton County Real Estate Market Stats, Alpharetta (Area 14)
Fulton County Real Estate Market Stats, Buckhead (Area 21)
Fulton County Real Estate Market Stats, Bankhead Hwy. (Area 22)
Fulton County Real Estate Market Stats, Midtown (Area 23)
Fulton County Real Estate Market Stats, West End (Area 31)
Fulton County Real Estate Market Stats, South Fulton (Area 33)
Fulton County Real Estate Market Stats, Sandy Springs (Area 131)
Fulton County Real Estate Market Stats, Sandy Springs (Area 132)
Fulton County Real Estate Market Stats, Grant Park, Lakewood (Area 32)
 

Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Stats, Norcross (Area 61)
Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Stats, Duluth/Buford (Area 62)
Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Stats, Lawrenceville (Area 63)
Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Stats, Lilburn (Area 64)
Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Stats, Snellville (Area 65)
Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Stats, Grayson (Area 66)

Cherokee County Real Estate Market Stats, Woodstock (Area 112)
Cherokee County Real Estate Market Stats,  Canton SE(Area 113)

 

 

Keep Your Transaction Costs to a Minimum

If you buy a home with me and then want to sell within one year due to a "Maitski Sell Signal", I will sell your home for a total of 4.5% commission instead of my customary 6% commission

 

Use Us as Your Buyer's Agent
Collect a Rebate for 50% of Our Commission

It's Our "Referral Fee" to You for Finding Us on the Internet

No Upfront Fees, No Cost to You Whatsoever


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Home Buyer Rebate

Get a 50% commission rebate when you close on your home with us representing as your buyer's agent. No upfront fees. 


We're with You Every Step of the Way

We help you through the entire process: Negotiations, inspections, contract to close details, final walk thru, attend the closing.

Here's How Much Your Rebate Will Be
Home Purchase Price Rebate
$2,000,0000 $30,000
$1,000,000 $15,000
$800,000 $12,000
$600,000 $9,000
$500,000 $7,500
$400,000 $6,000
$333,333 $5,000
$300,000 $4,000
$250,000 $2,500
$200,000 $1,000
< $166,666 $0
Based on 3% commission. Rebate for homes less than $333,333 is whatever is left after minimum agent commission of $5000

Rebate Calculator

Purchase Price of Home: $   Enter Home Price

  Buyer Rebate
 
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(Assumes buyer's agent receives a 3% commission split from the listing agent)

 

 

Time Limits Me to Working with

Only 5 Buyers/Month

Secure Your Rebate Opportunity Now...


Call 404-216-0472

email Tim@HomeAtlanta.com

 

This offer has nothing to do with any other agent at Atlanta Communities other than Tim Maitski.
Each agent is an independent contractor who can choose to do business as they so desire.

 

 

 

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Where We Do Business

Our market area is in the north metro Atlanta area.  We service Cobb County, north Fulton County, Dekalb County, Forsyth County and Gwinnett County.  We are very familiar with Sandy Springs, Dunwoody, Marietta, Roswell, Alpharetta, Buckhead, and Midtown. 

We have sold homes inside the perimeter and outside the perimeter.  We can't know everything so for clients who want to look for property in Peachtree City, Newnan, Stone Mountain, Douglasville, Macon and areas further out we will gladly recommend a good agent who specializes in those areas.

We help buyers negotiate with builders for residential new construction houses. New houses in Atlanta are hot right now. We can represent you in the purchase of your new house built by any of the following builders: Torrey Homes, MDC Homes, Centex Homes, Pulte Homes, Morrison Homes, Ryland Homes, John Wieland Homes, Winmark Homes, Meridian Homes, John Willis Homes, Benchmark Homes and many more home builders.

We can help clients find short term apartments for rent but normally we don't work with clients who are just looking for rentals.  We do help clients find Atlanta condos.  We can also help you purchase HUD homes in Atlanta.  We are an authorized agent with them and have the HUD key to get into HUD homes.  We have access to foreclosure homes that banks want to sell.

We love showing executive homes and luxury homes. We always like to know how people find our site.  Send us an email and tell us which search term you used. Some terms that we might be found by are realty Atlanta, Ga homes, Atlanta realty, condos Atlanta, Atlanta realestate, Atlanta property, houses Atlanta, Atlanta realtors, Ga houses, or realtors Atlanta.  Maybe you found us by typing in Atlanta MLS listings, or Atlanta MLS search, or MLS Atlanta GA. Hopefully we don't come up under nursing homes or funeral homes.

It is always amazing to me how the Internet can allow total strangers to find each other and build new business relationships.  It truly is becoming a small, interconnected world.

 

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Call Home Atlanta with any questions you might have. 404-216-0472

Atlanta Home Buyer Rebate

All information about homes from the Atlanta MLS home search engine is input by thousands of individual real estate agents throughout Atlanta and is made available through a service called ListingBook. We provide access to this data for the convenience of our clients.  We have no control over this database.  All information on this web site is copyrighted and intellectual property of HomeAtlanta.com. It is deemed to be current and accurate, but is not warranted. 2002. Tim is a licensed Realtor with Atlanta Communities Real Estate Brokerage.

Tim Maitski is a member of the Atlanta Board of Realtors

 

01/07/2016